I Predicted Santorum's Victory and Exact Percentage in Iowa (Also Gingrich's Victory in SC) / Proposed Gingrich-Santorum "Reaganite Pact" / Links to Many Facebook Political Discussions on the GOP Primaries

Romney won by eight votes: 30,015 (24.557%) to 30,007 (24.551%) for Santorum. [1-19-12 Note: now it looks like Santorum actually won by 34 votes]

I made my predictions for the Iowa Caucus in a Facebook post, written on 2 January, the day before the Caucus (Monday), 1 PM ET. Here they are, followed by the actual results, in blue (from this page) and how close I got to each (in red):

Santorum 25% | 24.55082% | + 0.44918

Romney 23% | 24.55737% | - 1.55737

Gingrich 15% | 13.3 % | + 1.7

Paul 14% | 21.4% | - 7.4

Perry 13% | 10.3% | + 2.7

Bachmann 8% | 5% | + 3

Huntsman 2% | 0.6% | + 1.4

I did amazingly well (if I do say so)! Excluding Paul, where I was way off, since I was assuming a marked downward trend and miscalculated that (just as I incorporated a striking upward trend for Santorum; thus many "late-breakers" must have gone for Paul), I was within 3 percentage points for all the other six candidates, and within 1.7% for four of the seven, including three of the top four. The average deviation (whether plus or minus) of all seven was 2.6%.

I got the order right, except for the top two: separated by a mere eight votes, or .006%, and Gingrich/Paul (#3 and #4 spots); thus showing again that my only serious miscalculation was Ron Paul's percentage. If I had given him 18% rather than 14% (taking away two points from Gingrich and one each from Perry and Bachmann, to even it out), then I would have been within 3.4% for all seven candidates, and within 2 points for all except for Paul.

I'd like to see anyone match that! If anyone can find a prediction that came so close, I'd be very interested to see it. In particular, the following prognosticating words of mine in my Facebook post, came true:

Santorum's strategy of working all 99 Iowa counties may indeed have succeeded in the end, as a tortoise and hare strategy, and prime example of "old-fashioned" methods of winning the Caucus.

* * *

Going forward, I think that the most interesting factor now will be the relationship of Santorum and Gingrich: the two mainstream conservative "anti-Romneys" left standing (Paul being too libertarian, but above all: out of the mainstream of the party on foreign policy -- to the left even of Obama --, and a predicted eventual non-factor).

They will -- for the time being -- continue to split the relatively more conservative Republican vote, assuming that Gingrich maintains any of his numbers, such as significant leads in South Carolina and Georgia. Newt's poll numbers may indeed rapidly collapse, with big money and "true-blue" conservatives / Reaganites gravitating to Santorum as the "comeback kid" and Final Non-Romney. If so, then Santorum and Romney will duke it out and, respectively, play Reagan and Bush in 1980: the classic establishment vs. populist / people's choice scenario.

But the other prime consideration is that Santorum now has the bullseye on his back, and will receive 200 times more scrutiny. Romney's negative ads will now target him: as the biggest threat to Romney's "inevitable" magisterial pundit-proclaimed majestic coronation as the new Establishment / Country Club GOP King. The liberal media and Obama minions will immediately start painting him as a far-right lunatic who would force raped women to have abortions, and ostracize homosexuals and institute a Puritanistic Catholic Theocracy (as if that category even makes any sense). This may stall his momentum or even stop Santorum's "Big Mo" dead in its tracks. He may go the way of all the other rising / falling non-Romneys (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and probably now Gingrich, respectively). All of that could happen. He'll take a hit, for sure.

What I think will be the wisest, most sensible, classy course of action, from my own Reaganite Gingrich-Santorum / critical of Romney perspective, would be a secret "pact" between Gingrich and Santorum. They clearly like each other and have a lot in common. Asked in television debates to choose another of the candidates that are akin to them, I know that Santorum chose Gingrich at least once, and possibly vice versa. Gingrich last night praised Santorum for his positive campaign and great comeback.

If they can both act as good Catholic men, and maintain this charity, they ought to recognize that the conservative cause lies with both of them now, and that a continuing split may very well cause Romney to be the candidate: a thing both are united in opposing. Therefore, in mutual self-interest, they should agree between themselves for one or the other to bow out, if and when they go below a certain predetermined average percentage in the polls (probably the Real Clear Politics website average, which is regarded as a standard), and that when one of them does, they will immediately endorse and even (possibly) work for the other, in order to assure Reaganite victory and someone besides Romney as the nominee.

This makes perfect political sense to me, on the assumption that the Cause is placed above individual ambitions and egos. It may be humanly impossible, but it is true that despite Gingrich's considerable ego, he has been quite magnanimous and fraternal towards the other candidates. Assuming he is the one to bow out (which seems a safer bet at this juncture), it is conceivable that he could do this: towards a friend, fellow Catholic, and, for the large part, political ally. It would be the classy move for him, and show that his charitable demeanor during previous debates was genuine and not a mere ploy.

Otherwise, I can see the writing on the wall already: Gingrich is already being cast (even by the Fox commentators) as "angry Gingrich": out to get revenge for Romney's smear ads against him. he doesn't want to go down in history as the angry, bitter old man: pouting and whining that he lost (this is how he is being perceived; again, I think it is unjust and unfair). If his numbers fall rapidly, that will be the outcome, and what people will remember about him. He can avoid that fate by showing class and getting out with dignity and endorsing Santorum if the situation dictates this to be the wisest course for the conservative cause. Then he'll be seen as a self-effacing team player, who can still be somewhat of a kingmaker, and thereby maintain relevance and stature. He can do his thing (what he excels at) away from the spotlight and negative nonsense.

Santorum should do the same if it goes the other way, but I think it is at least 70-30 odds that it now swings Santorum's way because of momentum, Newt's famous "baggage" (warranted or not), and America's love for comebacks and working-class middle-American backgrounds of second-generation immigrants. Santorum is the "fresh face." That gives him the edge, on all these counts.

For the record, I continue to like both men a great deal. I still prefer Gingrich overall, but realistically, in terms of politics, I think he is too "damaged" (and it is most unfair, in my opinion) to be the better choice of the two now. Santorum has the better chance in the real world, and I must swallow my relentless idealism. But Santorum is a fabulous candidate, too: a good Catholic and authentic, passionate, "progressive / compassionate conservative". If he succeeds in being elected, he ought to include Gingrich in his administration, in some capacity: as a "feel-good" reward for his support (if my scenario comes to pass).